Saskaņā ar premjerministres Džordžijas Meloni valdības teikto, valsts budžeta deficīts šogad jau ir 3%, tādējādi atgriežot Itālijas budžetu Eiropas Savienības finanšu noteikumu līmenī.
Itālija tagad sagaida, ka tās budžeta deficīts 2025. gadā būs aptuveni 3% no IKP, kas ir mazāk nekā iepriekš prognozēts aptuveni 3,3% apmērā.
Par to liecina valdības publisko finanšu plānošanas dokuments, kas ceturtdien iesniegts parlamentam un kas parāda, ka nodokļu ieņēmumi ir bijuši lielāki nekā paredzēts, tādējādi uzlabojot budžeta bilanci.
Ja galīgie skaitļi to apstiprinās, tas nozīmē, ka ES trešā lielākā ekonomika varētu izkļūt no bloka pārmērīga budžeta deficīta procedūras gadu pirms grafika.
Iepriekš, aprīlī, Itālijas valdība prognozēja, ka deficīts šogad samazināsies līdz 3,3% no IKP, salīdzinot ar 3,4% 2024. gadā.
ES uzsāk deficīta procedūru pret valstīm, kas neievēro bloka fiskālos noteikumus un pārsniedz 3% deficīta ierobežojumu. Procedūra ierobežo dalībvalstu manevrēšanas iespējas attiecībā uz nodokļu samazināšanu un izdevumiem, lai saglabātu deficītu ilgtspējīgā līmenī, tādējādi nodrošinot fiskālo stabilitāti eirozonā.
ES pašlaik īsteno pārmērīga budžeta deficīta procedūras pret tādām valstīm kā Francija, Austrija, Beļģija, Ungārija un Polija. ES izvērtēs katras valsts, tostarp Itālijas, galīgos skaitļus 2026. gada pavasarī.
Itālijas fiskālās perspektīvas jau vairākus mēnešus uzlabojas, ko atzina arī ECB prezidente Kristīne Lagarda, kura septembrī intervijā Radio Classique teica: “Itālija šodien veic ļoti nopietnus budžeta centienus un, iespējams, izstāsies no (ES procedūras), drīz sasniedzot 3 % deficītu.”
Septembrī kredītreitingu aģentūra Fitch Ratings paaugstināja Itālijas ilgtermiņa parādu no “BBB” uz “BBB+” ar stabilu perspektīvu, kas atspoguļo “palielinātu pārliecību par Itālijas fiskālo trajektoriju”.
Kredītreitingu aģentūra uzslavēja valdības stingro apņemšanos sasniegt īstermiņa un vidēja termiņa fiskālos mērķus saskaņā ar jauno ES fiskālo sistēmu.
Tomēr riski joprojām pastāv, jo valsts cīnās ar augstu parāda un IKP attiecību. 2026. gadā šis rādītājs tiek prognozēts zemāk par iepriekšējo mērķi – 137,8 % no IKP, un paredzams, ka 2027. gadā tas samazināsies, 2028. gadā sasniedzot 136,4 %.
Meloni valdība paredz, ka ekonomika 2025. gadā pieaugs par 0,5 % pēc tam, kad 2024. gadā tā pieauga par 0,7 %. 2026. gadam prognoze ir 0,7 %, lai gan šis skaitlis ir ļoti atkarīgs no ģeopolitikas un ASV tirdzniecības tarifiem.
Jaunajā fiskālajā gadā valdība plāno samazināt nodokļus cilvēkiem ar vidējiem ienākumiem, kas ir viens no Meloni galvenajiem vēlēšanu solījumiem.
Budžetā ir arī solīts palielināt aizsardzības izdevumus, kas 2026. gadā pieaugs par 0,15 % no IKP, 2027. gadā – par 0,3 % un 2028. gadā – par 0,5 %.
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