Pat ja muitas ieņēmumi četrkāršojās jauno tarifu dēļ, rekordlielie izdevumi pabalstiem, veselības aprūpei un parādu procentiem izraisīja lielāko mēneša deficītu ASV vēsturē.
Saskaņā ar Valsts kases departamenta datiem, ASV federālais deficīts jūlijā pieauga līdz 291 miljardam ASV dolāru (248 miljardiem eiro), kas ir par 19 % vairāk nekā iepriekšējā gada attiecīgajā mēnesī un viens no lielākajiem lēcieniem pēdējos gados.
Tā ir lielākā jebkad reģistrētā izdevumu kopsumma jūlija mēnesī, lai gan dažos citos mēnešos, īpaši COVID-19 stimulēšanas maksimuma laikā, kopumā izdevumi bija vēl lielāki.
Lai gan valsts tagad no tarifiem gūst lielākus ienākumus — muitas ieņēmumi tika četrkāršoti, pieaugot no aptuveni 7,1 miljarda ASV dolāru (6,06 miljardiem eiro) 2024. gada jūlijā līdz aptuveni 27,7 miljardiem ASV dolāru (23,7 miljardiem eiro) šogad —, ar to nepietika, lai kompensētu straujo izdevumu pieaugumu.
Kāpēc pieaug ASV federālais deficīts
Izdevumi pieauga, jo palielinājās sociālās apdrošināšanas maksājumi, palielinājās Medicare un Medicaid izmaksas, kā arī palielinājās valsts parāda procentu maksājumi, kā arī dārgākās aizsardzības, izglītības un veselības aprūpes programmas, kas jūlija deficītu pacēla līdz rekordaugstam līmenim.
Jūlija skaitlis seko svārstīgam federālās valdības mēneša bilances posmam, ko daļēji noteica jaunie importa nodokļi un fiskālā kalendāra īpatnības.
Maijā deficīts samazinājās līdz 316 miljardiem ASV dolāru (269,8 miljardiem eiro) jeb 219 miljardiem ASV dolāru (187 miljardiem eiro), koriģējot laika atšķirības, jo tarifu ieņēmumi no jaunajiem importa nodokļiem nodrošināja agrīnu negaidītu peļņu.
Sākumā šķita, ka jūnijā ir rets pārpalikums, taču tā lielā mērā bija ilūzija – koriģējot maksājumu izmaiņas, mēnesī faktiski bija 71 miljarda ASV dolāru (60,6 miljardu eiro) deficīts.
Jūlija atgriešanās pie dziļa deficīta uzsver plašāku fiskālo realitāti. Proti, lai gan pēdējos mēnešos tarifi Valsts kasē ir iepludinājuši desmitiem miljardu, tie nav mainījuši strukturālo nelīdzsvarotību starp ieņēmumiem un izdevumiem. Tēriņi turpina apsteigt ieņēmumus, pat ar veselīgiem muitas ieņēmumiem.
Neskaitot īslaicīgo jūnija pārpalikumu, valdības deficīts joprojām ir ievērojams, un vienreizēji ieņēmumu palielinājumi no tarifiem nespēj ierobežot pastāvīgā, plaša mēroga izdevumu pieauguma ietekmi. Kā liecina Valsts kases dati, pat vairākus mēnešus ilgušie rekordlielie muitas nodokļu iekasējumi ir maz ietekmējuši nodokļu samazināšanās tempu.
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